Aggressive monetary policy has been the most important catalyst for stabilisation and rising asset prices in the past few years, but fiscal policy transparency will take the lead in 2013, predicts US Trust.
In its 2013 market outlook the private bank said that, combined with a continued easing monetary policy and improving economies both in the US and abroad, this new fiscal policy transparency should help to spark a long-awaited reallocation of capital for both businesses and investors.
“We believe the defining feature of financial markets in 2013 all around the globe will be a transition from this monetary policy-based ‘great experiment’ into a more business-directed and fiscally transparent period we’re calling ‘The Big Fix,’” said Chris Hyzy, chief investment officer at US Trust. “The Big Fix is based on a recovering housing market, continued strong corporate profits, increased transparency in fiscal policy and, towards the second half of 2013, a rise in capital expenditures by corporations.”
Hyzy established a 2013 target for the S&P Index of 1600 on 20 November 2012, with a price-to-earnings multiple of 14.5 times to 15.0 times and $108 per share in profit; the index ended last week at 1472.05.
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