Europe’s risk managers predict further staffing cuts in the banking sector and many expect entrepreneurs and consumers to increasingly seek alternative borrowing sources, reports the European Financial Marketing Association (Efma).
Results of the fifth ‘European Credit Risk Survey’, conducted by Efma and technology group FICO among over 100 representatives from 29 European countries and 86 companies, found that 90% of respondents forecast a rise in banking consolidation in Europe’s strongest economies against 72% in the weakest economies.
Other results from the survey include:
- Eighty-four percent of respondents do not expect banks to increase the credit available, although 37% anticipate that small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) will request more credit.
- More experts forecast banking consolidation in the strongest European economies than in the weakest.
- Ninety-five percent believe that banks will increase their use of macroeconomic data in credit risk decisions.
- Just over half (55%) expect mortgage delinquencies to continue rising.
- Ninety-two percent forecast an increase in card not present (CNP) fraud
“Bankers see little relief for tight credit markets, which are leading governments to consider stimulus measures such as the UK’s funding for lending programme,” said Mike Gordon, general manager for FICO in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA). “In addition, bank bailouts and other controversies continue to make the headlines, which may help to explain why bankers believe more of their customers will seek credit through alternative channels.
“Many risk managers see the need for analytics that indicate how changes in the economy impact borrowers’ credit risk. This improves not just risk management but also capital management, two areas retail banks are focused on due to the continued challenges in the European economy.”
The full report can be found at the Efma website link.
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