Nomura has launched its Global Emerging Market Risk Index, GEMaRI, describing the index as an early warning system for emerging market currency and balance-of-payments crises.
GEMaRI calculates the risk of currency crises occurring in 35 emerging market economies over the following 12 months and assigns a score to each country. The index incorporates 16 specially selected and weighted indicators that are integral to accurately measuring the risk of a currency crisis in an emerging market economy.
The company says that the index has been rigorously back tested using data from 1996 incorporating previous major financial crises in emerging market economies, including the Asia crisis in the late 1990s and more recently the currency stresses in eastern Europe. In addition to assessing the risk of balance of payments shocks and exchange rate crises in emerging markets, the solution is designed to gauge equity risk premia and to spot inconsistencies in sovereign credit ratings and credit default swaps.
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