Research published by Barclays Wealth suggested that the Bank of England was likely to cut rates this month, while the European Central Bank will sit on the sidelines. The study, February’s version of Barclays Wealth Signpost Monthly Investment Strategy Report series, suggests that the chance of a recession in the US has risen to close to 50:50. However, it is looking increasingly as if any slowdown will be short-lived – a V-shaped profile for GDP, rather than L- or U-shaped. The study argues that Europe cannot escape the effects of a US recession, if there is one. Consequently, the company expects pressure on the ECB to cut interest rates to build, as the US and global economy look set to perform poorly during the first half of this year. But it is judged as still too early for the ECB to cut rates this week. But it may well do so by the spring. In terms of foreign exchange markets, a ‘no-grow’ or ‘slow-grow’ environment for the US, accompanied by further Federal Reserve rate cuts, may well entail further downward pressure on the US dollar. Sterling still appears substantially overvalued and Barclays Wealth expect’s it to fall. The implication is that the European Central Bank (ECB) will be forced to cut interest rates, and that the Euro will therefore weaken. But, because of the markets’ expectations of further rate cuts, Barclays Wealth does not think there will be rebound in the US dollar in the short-term.
The annual BNP Paribas Cash Management University kicked off on Thursday morning with treasury professionals congregating in Paris from across Europe.
APIs may be a solution to MT940 challenges, says Karen Fagan, treasury operation manager, for British television company, ITV.
Kicking off the first day of the Singapore Fintech Festival, issues with cryptocurrencies were addressed by MIT media labs director, Joi Ito, and panels of technology leaders discussed how they’re using data analytics.
Sibos 2017 day two highlights: Brexit and banking, and why ‘data is the new oil’ in financial services
How nation first politics can impact global financial organisations It’s clear that data and regulation are the two key topics that are ... read more