The Bond Market Association (BMA) has released its first Quarterly Government Securities Issuance and Rates Forecast, projecting a sharp increase in US Treasury debt sales. The BMA expects net new issuance of $75 billion of treasury notes in the current quarter, brought about by a rising budget deficit. This projection represents a 67 per cent increase over net note issuance in the first quarter of 2003 and a 175 percent increase over the second quarter of 2002. The BMA Forecast also predicts that the Treasury Department will finish the quarter with a cash balance of $40 billion, approximately the same as the balance at the end of the second quarter of 2002. The BMA Forecast, which will be issued on a quarterly basis, reflects the results of a survey of members of the Association’s Government Securities Research Committee, comprised of trading strategists and research analysts with a focus on the U.S. government and agency securities markets.
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